Thanks for reading this blog! I’m worried this entry is a little too cynical, long, and niche for most people, but certainly along the lines of regular programming. Before you close out of this tab I want to say ‘Merry Christmas’ and I can’t wait to see you again soon! I appreciate that you read it, and it warms my heart to get real-life feedback (even if it’s usually a light ribbing 😉). Much love, Casey.
I keep reading all of these "hot takes" and "predictions" columns from paid media and am growingly frustrated with their bland nature. Some ravishing examples are below…
Crank arms will continue to get shorter. Yeah. Probably. That's only been a trend since 2020.
eMTB's will continue to get lighter and have better range. Ooooh, how amazingly unpredictable.
Trail riding will grow as a discipline. Oh, you mean the kind of riding 95% of riders do every time they ride?
Press-stopping stuff. In the spirit of spewing out some bike-and-life-related predictions, I present to you the best, most unresearched hot takes I could spit out of my brain on this beautiful Wednesday afternoon. Please, don't take me as a cynic; it's just some laid-out opinions.
Life Takes - Sorry, not hot takes.
2024 is going to be as predictable as 2023. Sorry, mom and dad. We won't have much to report other than Crystal and I are still having fun playing with friends in the woods. Joking aside, some big things are in store for 2024, and I'm doing my best not to rush anything. When life is good, it's best to keep the good going.
I'll continue to ride my bike while not climbing as much as I would like. I want to climb more, ya know, but there's only so much time in a day. I canceled my membership at the local climbing gym since I'm interested in more than just climbing walls and need some gym equipment to go with it. I’ll probably start running a lot more, too. Heck, maybe I'll pick up a hobby that doesn't just focus on a high level of cardio mixed with a bit of bravery.
I’ll keep blogging. This is a great way to channel unspent energy in a way that isn’t cycling, weightlifting, or breaking my toys. Idle hands… or something like that. As much as I would like to learn a real skill during my free time, blogging is just too much fun.
Bike Takes - Actual hot takes start here.
Enduro is dead. Long live Enduro. Enduro, as we know it, is dead and dying. No longer will the industry support spending tens of thousands of dollars shipping athletes, support staff, and media people to far-off and remote locations for an enduro race only a handful of fans are following. As important as the "win on Sunday, sell on Monday" mantra continues to be (enter: Cervelo), I couldn't tell you, with certainty, the name of one person in the last two years who's won an EWS and what bike they were riding. Enduro, as it was, is not a viable industry, but there is hope.
Domestic enduro-ish racing can and will continue to thrive in this environment. Even though I don't know or pay enough attention to the world series of Enduro/Downhill racing, I can tell you what the quickest folks on our local mountain are riding. This all has to do with my previous take about how word of mouth is going to continue to lead the way in marketing. I'll pay attention to what local friends and fan favorites are racing, riding, and doing in their day-to-day to get better. But that highly compensated rider from the other side of the world who happens to ride a domestic brand? It's going to take a lot for me to care about what they're doing. This take does create an issue for the sustainability of the sport as a career, and I'm not sure what the long-term play is.
We're in the golden age of mountain biking. This is the best it's ever going to get; the only variable is how long this high is going to last. I'd argue that the best of mountain biking started around 2016 when modern bikes and geometry started to take over, trails and access were plentiful, and NIMBYs weren't quite as loud. I think we're still at the peak. Bikes are getting better. There are more, better trails than ever before, and access hasn't been cut off for most people, yet.
However, with the advent of e-bikes and the critical mass of popularity the sport is experiencing, we're setting the hobby up for a quick and painful fall. There are already examples out there about how so-and-so trail system got shut down, the feds are banning off-road eBikes on managed land, and if you visit any hiking Facebook group, you're bound to hear griping about those damn bikers. I get it. Mountain bikers are obnoxious and oblivious and often think they own the trail. I've certainly ruffled some feathers while riding, although I try to be a more courteous trail user every day; lots of people just don't like bikes. The hobby is at the point where it's big enough to be a nuisance but not large enough to have any major influence over the cries of hikers and other trail users. I'm going to enjoy the high while it lasts but won't be surprised as trail closures and enforcement continue to ramp up over the coming decades, and more riders are pushed into sterilized, machine-built trail centers.
Technology Takes
Strava will launch a dating service. This one is too easy. It's barely a hot take. They recently introduced messaging (hello, Facebook Messenger), and I'm predicting that they will soon launch a dating service (enter, Facebook Dating). Look, all Silicon Valley apps have the same purpose in the end, and that's to addict users via making connections in this digital landscape. If Strava can get us to follow our friends and other people we meet on rides, who's to say they can't match us up with someone who has similar fitness levels in the same geographic area? It seems like an easy W, Strava. Can someone say "Kudos"?
Outside, Inc. will ride off quietly into the sunset. This one isn't a hot take; it's just what I wish would happen. "I wish there was a way to know you're in the good old days before you've actually left them.". Maybe if they continue to waste money and make bad decisions about NFTs, some of their previously purchased publications will be able to buy themselves back and operate free from Outside's purview.
Political Takes
Cars, parking lots, and wasteful developments will continue to dominate the landscape. I live in a bubble. The bubble I live in is full of outdoorsy, progressive young people who have relatively stable incomes, readily available human-powered transportation, and enough free time to enjoy the outdoors on a very regular basis. But even in my bubble, most of us choose to drive a vehicle 9 times out of 10 and live in car-dependent suburbs or exurbs. I do my best to keep private vehicle trip numbers low, but I'm not faultless, I still rely on a personal or friends' vehicles quite often and don't lose sleep over it. As I'm typing this, Crystal and I are gearing up for a 2500-mile road trip over the next 10 days.
One of the biggest surprises to hit my newsfeed recently was that the town adjacent to my hometown and county seat of Jefferson County, developed a city plan that heavily focused on alternative transportation. Incredibly progressive for a predominantly conservative county that represents a heavily rural population. As much hope as that may hark for the future, the reality is that in my bubble of mostly Gen Z and millennial progressives, we don't care to utilize a more bike and pedestrian-friendly future. I'm going to continue to do my part in reducing personal vehicle trips and taking my lamborfeetsies to the grocery store or post office and encourage those reading this to do the same, please. It's not a cause worth losing sleep over nor one to base your entire personality on, but making small changes to deeply engrained habits is at least something.
Single-issue voting has a stranglehold over politics. It doesn't matter what direction you look, left or right, single-issue voting is the common denominator. In the past, I used to think the phrase was mostly reserved for anti-abortion and pro-gun Republicans, but it's become apparent that both sides think alike. I'm sure this take is obvious to a lot of you, but please forgive my ignorance. I also believe single-issue voting is why Trump won't win a second term, because a lot of voters will vote for continuing democracy over fascism (hint: my single-issue). New Gen Z voters are evidently heavily single-issue, focusing on abortion or the Israeli-Gaza conflict, and I'm sure the powers-that-be have some plans for the next generation's issues of choice. Anyways, it doesn't hurt to be a little more diversified.
Climate Takes
Within the next 5-10 years, ski areas will skip seasons or not operate until after February 1. Look at the trends of this El Nino year. It's raining at 5000' up at Mt. Baker, and it took until mid-December for them to open. Though this is a problem mostly reserved for ski resorts that don't blow snow, the fact is that without good snow, you won't get people up to the mountain, and without people, you can't run a ski hill.
Never mind how ironic skiing is for the environment, as we pump thousands of tons of earth-warming CO2 into the atmosphere to get to and operate the resorts, only to ski on the snow that only exists when the air is cold enough to produce it. I can't help but chuckle when I see a POW (protect our winters) sticker on a car or truck heading up the mountain. But cynicism aside, I don't see how resorts are going to continue to afford to operate with the climate shifting as it is. This is bad news for resorts on publicly held lands, as the hard cut-off date for lift use is often managed by the resort and their agreement with the forest service (generally mid/late April).
Life Updates
Brent beat me good at a bike race! Kinda. This past weekend, I participated in Cascade Cross's Camp Lutherwood event in the single-speed race. I'm going to be honest, I wasn't feeling amazing, but sometimes those are the best races. I was taking risks and not feeling completely comfortable with the effort, and on lap 4, I made a big mistake that sent me to the deck. I'm fine, but the bike's shifters both broke during the crash, and I was forced to DNF. This all but cements Brent's series win, but there's one more race left and anything can happen!
Crystal and I will be spending the holidays in Salt Lake City before heading down to St. George for some playtime in the desert and returning to Bellingham just after New Years. Every time we go to St. George, the city is nearly unrecognizable, and I'm curious if we'll even be able to access our normal camping spot with all the recent developments. I'll also be taking time to flail on some classic Moe's boulders while down there, as many problems are under threat due to increasing development.
Can’t wait to see y’all, Salt Lake peeps! Thanks for reading :)
To your parking comment, heard an interview with this author but the book is pricey (hie thee to a library). Some good history and analysis. "The High Cost of Free Parking" (google it-the link was horrendous).
I don't know what's more momentous than how you ended 2023, but bring it!
Re: politics. My fear is that Biden is losing Gen Z because, as you note, they are single issue voters. Nuance in the face of horror is a difficult proposition, but without it you end up on the side of the devil you don't know. The opposite of Trump, for many, may be not voting at all.
And finally-looking forward to seeing you three next year! There's always room here…